75,000 Jobs at Risk in Netherlands if Mideast Energy Crisis Persists
The agency modeled two contrasting labor market scenarios through to 2028 — one in which energy prices retreat swiftly, and another in which they remain persistently elevated. The gap between the two outcomes amounts to 75,000 jobs over the three-year period.
"There will still be growth, but much less than in previous years," the UWV said.
Rob Witjes, head of Labour Market Information and Advice at the UWV, noted that businesses are growing increasingly cautious amid global uncertainty, with industry, transport, and storage sectors expected to absorb the heaviest blows. Temporary employment agencies would also feel the strain.
"Many people who start working through a temporary employment agency work in sectors such as transport and industry," Witjes said.
Elevated energy costs are further expected to erode purchasing power, placing additional pressure on consumer-facing sectors such as hospitality. Healthcare, ICT, and specialized business services, however, are forecast to sustain growth regardless of the energy trajectory.
Witjes struck a cautiously optimistic note on the longer-term outlook. "It is all temporary," said Witjes. "We assume that it will all rebound in 2028, at least if the war is over by then."
The forecast comes as diplomatic efforts intensify on the broader regional conflict. President Donald Trump confirmed early Tuesday that US-Iran negotiations remained active — even as Iran and Israel agreed to halt reciprocal attacks that had threatened to unravel a fragile ceasefire. Trump signaled a formal deal could be within reach "one or two days from now, but I think it's going well."
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